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Disinflation proceeding rapidly in emerging economies: McKinsey

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Inflation is slowly easing in developed nations, but is still high enough to push consumption levels lower and keep interest rates elevated, according to McKinsey’s Global Economics Intelligence. In emerging economies, disinflation is proceeding more rapidly, especially for producer prices.

In other recent data, global and individual consumer confidence indicators did not generally worsen in January, but remained stable at a low level. Retail sales retained positive momentum in the United States and the United Kingdom in January.

Inflation is slowly easing in developed nations, but is still high enough to push consumption levels lower and keep interest rates elevated, according to McKinsey. In emerging economies, disinflation is proceeding more rapidly. Global and individual consumer confidence indicators did not generally worsen in January, but were stable at a low level, it noted.

Inflation expectations implied in the yield spreads of US treasuries remain in the range of 2.3 per cent to 2.5 per cent. Equity indexes in the developed economies—especially Europe—have been gradually recovering in the new year.

The US dollar strengthened in February, against the euro ($1.07), the pound ($1.20) and the yuan (6.87 renminbi). The equities volatility index remains elevated in comparison with pre-pandemic levels. Yields on long-term government bonds eased in February.

Unemployment rates remain relatively low in all surveyed economies: 3.4 per cent in the United States, 6.7 per cent in the eurozone, 3.7 per cent in the United Kingdom and 7.9 per cent in Brazil, the McKinsey report said.

After a slight uptick in December, the global supply chain pressure index returned to its easing course in January this year.

The Indian economy will likely have grown at 7 per cent by the end of fiscal 2022-23. Positive manufacturing and services indicators and solid investment growth signal the Chinese economy’s return to faster expansion after the lifting of zero-COVID restrictions, the McKinsey report added.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)


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