India’s trade volume growth rate is forecast to double from 3 per cent to 6 per cent, boosting its speed rank from 72nd to 34th and its scale rank from 11th to 5th between 2021 and 2026. Vietnam, India, and the Philippines all stand to benefit from efforts by many companies to diversify China-centric production and sourcing strategies, according to DHL.

From 2000 to 2021, trade grew even faster in South and Central Asia, roughly doubling that region’s share from 2.3 per cent to 4.5 per cent (primarily due to India’s share rising from 0.7 per cent to 2.2 per cent).

India’s trade volume growth rate is forecast to double from 3 per cent to 6 per cent, boosting its speed rank from 72nd to 34th and its scale rank from 11th to 5th between 2021 and 2026. Vietnam, India, and the Philippines all stand to benefit from efforts by many companies to diversify China-centric production and sourcing strategies, according to the DHL.

“It is fantastic to see emerging economies racing ahead in global trade. South Asia is expected to rapidly increase its share of global trade, with India doubling its trade volume growth rate in the next five years. According to the data we have gathered, the shift in trading patterns will result in higher quality goods produced versus the quantity of goods produced by emerging markets in the future,” said R S Subramanian, SVP South Asia, DHL Express.

There was a surge of interest at the start of the pandemic in shortening supply chains and producing goods closer to customers. However, as trade recovered and global supply chains delivered a record amount of goods, many companies paused reshoring and nearshoring plans.

As Asia led the trade expansion around the world during the past two decades, the growth of trade between regions tended to outpace the growth of trade within regions. This is largely because Europe and North America traded more with Asia as ‘Factory Asia’ became increasingly central to global production networks.

Between 2016 and 2021, China ranked first with the fastest growth in both exports and imports. But between 2021 and 2026, the ASEAN (Association of South­east Asian Nations) sub-region is forecasted to achieve the fastest export and import growth, followed by South and Central Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, according to the report.

International trade in goods has surged as high as 10 per cent above pre-pandemic levels. Despite the war in Ukraine, trade is projected to grow faster in 2022 and 2023 than it did over the previous decade.

“The results show how there are still large trade growth opportunities in both advanced and emerging economies and in regions around the world. The trade landscape is shifting and presenting new challenges, but this report strongly rebuts predictions of a major retreat from global trade,” said senior research scholar and director of the DHL initiative on globalisation at NYU Stern’s Centre for the Future of Management Steven Altman.

DHL and NYU Stern School of Business have published the new DHL Trade Growth Atlas, which maps the most important trends and prospects of global trade in goods. The report covers 173 countries, providing valuable business intelligence for policymakers and industry leaders.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (NB)